Overview
- The budget package overhauls housing taxation by limiting negative gearing to new builds and replacing the 50% capital‑gains discount with inflation indexation, and the government is fast‑tracking the laws through the House this week.
- Passage is uncertain in the Senate because the Coalition will oppose the measures and the Greens have not yet committed, while a short Senate inquiry is scheduled to report by June 22.
- Market signals weakened after the budget with May dwelling values down in Sydney and Melbourne and auction clearances falling, and major banks now expect a bigger price drag than Treasury did.
- Commonwealth Bank analysts put the likely hit to national prices at about 5%, some forecasters warn falls could be larger, and investor groups report a split between rushed buys and paused activity that could cut rental supply.
- Key implementation details remain unresolved — including how 'new build' is defined, small‑business carve‑outs and ministerial instruments — and those choices will determine the reforms' real impact on sellers, landlords and renters.