Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center projects a 60% chance of an ENSO-neutral state during February–April 2026, with neutral conditions favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer.
- Model outlooks split on late-2026 outcomes, with NOAA guidance suggesting roughly 50–60% odds of El Niño by late summer and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reported near 90% for the second half of the year.
- An independent arXiv forecast using climate-network and complexity methods favors neutral conditions in 2026 and, if El Niño forms, anticipates a weaker event of about 0.84 ± 0.36°C.
- Recent observations show subsurface warming expanding across the equatorial Pacific and atmospheric signs consistent with a weakening La Niña.
- Forecasters stress low confidence at this lead time due to seasonal predictability barriers, noting that an eventual El Niño would typically add up to ~0.2°C to global temperatures.