Overview
- NOAA now favors a shift to ENSO‑neutral this spring and puts the chance of El Niño at roughly 50–60% by late summer, holding off on an El Niño Watch because likelihood within six months is not yet high enough.
- Observations show weakening La Niña signals alongside strong equatorial westerly wind bursts and a growing subsurface heat reservoir, which models indicate could support surface warming later in the year.
- Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology model shows a 57% El Niño chance by May and very high odds by mid‑winter, though officials stress February long‑range guidance carries low skill.
- BOM’s ACCESS‑S2 outlook leans toward below‑normal April–June rainfall across much of Australia, consistent with historical El Niño patterns that raise risks of drier winter–spring conditions, heat and elevated fire danger.
- If El Niño takes hold into the peak months, Atlantic hurricane activity would typically be suppressed by stronger upper‑level shear while the East and Central Pacific basins tend to become more active.