Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Kīlauea Forecast Windows Can No Longer Be Modeled, USGS Says

A new shallow dike intrusion has broken the timing models scientists used to predict fountaining and now requires reliance on short‑notice seismic and satellite alerts

Overview

  • USGS scientists used InSAR satellite imagery to map a narrow, sheet‑like dike that opened beneath the northwestern part of Kaluapele between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2 and that cuts across the summit caldera.
  • The dike and changing inflation patterns have disrupted the patterns that gave days or hours of forecast notice, and the USGS says forecast windows for the next lava‑fountaining episode (episode 55) can no longer be modeled.
  • More than 200 shallow earthquakes were recorded beneath the summit over the past week, including a magnitude 3.4 on Sept. 30 that caused minor rockfalls along the caldera's north wall, according to HVO and NPS reports.
  • Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park closed the Halemaʻumaʻu Trail and part of the Byron Ledge Trail (1.3 miles) and issued warnings about gas, remobilized glassy tephra and unstable cliff edges while the volcano remains at ORANGE aviation color code.
  • Kīlauea has been intermittently active since December 2024 and sits on faults from the 2018 summit collapse, so officials say future paths could include renewed fountaining, new shallow vents, rift‑zone intrusion, or an end to the current eruption and they are monitoring to give short‑notice alerts to protect visitors and residents.