Overview
- KeyBanc Capital Markets raised Firefly to Overweight from Sector Weight in a note published before Monday’s open, calling the sector selloff “unwarranted and largely systematic.”
- The upgrade rests on a reported $75 million MoonFall contract from NASA and a $5.5 million option for Firefly unit SciTec from the U.S. Department of the Air Force, which led KeyBanc to lift FY26–FY27 revenue forecasts.
- Market moves followed SpaceX’s high‑profile IPO last Friday, which rallied SpaceX shares and prompted funds to trim smaller space stocks, sending Firefly down about 19% before a partial recovery in Monday premarket trade.
- Coverage diverged on KeyBanc’s valuation for Firefly, with some outlets reporting a $135 price target while another cited a $50 forecast, and the stock remains in the low‑$30s well below the more optimistic target.
- Analysts say near‑term upside depends on Firefly’s execution and financing: the company recently raised capital through a 12 million‑share offering, has Alpha launch momentum, and is developing the medium‑lift Eclipse vehicle targeted no earlier than 2027.