Overview
- Kevin Warsh will take the helm of the Federal Reserve at a White House ceremony after a 54–45 Senate confirmation, with investors focused on his first signals on policy.
- CME FedWatch shows overwhelming odds of no change to rates through June and strong odds through July, while Kalshi pricing now puts the chance of any cut before 2027 at about 38%.
- JPMorgan expects Warsh to keep rates steady through 2026, a stance that can lift the dollar and Treasury yields and make Bitcoin and other speculative assets less attractive.
- Jerome Powell remains a voting governor, and questions about Fed independence resurfaced after Sen. Elizabeth Warren warned about political pressure and preferential treatment risks.
- Lawmakers also pressed the White House to fill open CFTC seats, noting that pending proposals like the CLARITY Act could expand the agency’s role over spot digital commodities and shape crypto oversight.