Overview
- The Senate confirmed Kevin M. Warsh as Federal Reserve chair in a 54–45 vote and his term began May 15, with a White House swearing-in scheduled for Friday, May 22.
- Minutes from the April 28–29 FOMC meeting released May 20 show a majority of participants said further rate increases could be appropriate if inflation remains persistently above the 2 percent goal.
- Recent data have strengthened that case: April consumer prices rose 3.8 percent year over year and producer prices climbed about 6 percent, shifting the inflation outlook higher.
- Market tools including CME FedWatch and Kalshi sharply cut odds of 2026 rate cuts and now price a high chance of no change through June and July with growing odds of hikes later in the year.
- Warsh inherits a divided committee with four April dissents, the unusual presence of former chair Jerome Powell on the Board, and political pressure from President Trump that could constrain his room to build consensus before the June 16–17 FOMC meeting.