Overview
- The projection sits near peers’ views, with the IMF at 1.9%, the Bank of Korea at 1.8% and the OECD at 2.1%.
- Official data show January exports up 33.9% to $65.85 billion, with semiconductor shipments surging 102.7% to $20.54 billion after $20.8 billion in December.
- KDI expects cumulative interest-rate cuts to support a consumption rebound as higher chip prices and lower crude costs lift real income.
- The outlook faces potential drag from possible U.S. tariff increases on Korean goods, including electronics and semiconductors.
- KDI warns construction recovery could be delayed by slow project launches in a cooling property market, while the finance ministry’s Green Book still describes a recovery with firmer demand and easing inflation at 2.0% in January.