Overview
- The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Karina and on Friday placed its center near 13.7°N, 115.5°W with about 55 kt winds and a 990 mb pressure while forecasting hurricane strength by early Saturday and possible major‑hurricane intensity by Sunday.
- Karina is expected to generate large swells, life‑threatening surf and rip currents along portions of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend, and the NHC and local offices have urged mariners and coastal communities to follow official products.
- Tropical Storm Lowell was also named in the eastern Pacific and is forecast to strengthen to hurricane intensity in several days, while Invest EP94 east‑southeast of Hawaii has a high chance of development and another low is expected to form south of Mexico next week.
- In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Dolly has lost its closed circulation and become a tropical wave whose remnants are moving west and are forecast to bring gale conditions, heavy rain and possible flash flooding to the Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the weekend and early next week.
- Short‑range NHC guidance remains the operational baseline but model divergence grows beyond 48–72 hours, with some non‑consensus forecasts showing rare eastward scenarios toward Southern California that are currently low confidence compared with the NHC’s offshore track guidance.