Overview
- Kalshi’s new standard applies to markets implicitly dependent on a person’s survival, paying at the odds just before death or when death was reasonably anticipated.
- Following user backlash, Kalshi said it paid $2.2 million to address complaints and froze roughly $54–55 million in Khamenei-related trades under its prohibition on bets that settle on death.
- Kalshi resolved its high-profile ‘Khamenei out’ market under the contract’s WLEADEROUT rules at prices from one minute before strikes on Iran.
- Predictefy data show Polymarket handled more than $802 million in Iran-related volume, and Bubblemaps flagged suspected insiders who profited from well-timed bets on a U.S. strike.
- CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the agency is drafting rules for event contracts that could take months, and Sen. Chris Murphy said he will propose legislation to bar profiting from war and death.