Overview
- Kalshi rolled out and expanded state-specific referral codes on Friday, promoting OREGONLIVE1 for a $10 bonus and ALCOM15 for a $15 bonus to attract new users to France–Morocco and Spain–Belgium markets.
- The promos require new-account verification, a deposit and qualifying trades (for example a first $10 trade or 10 event trades for OREGONLIVE1, and a $15 trade for ALCOM15), and bonuses often carry use and withdrawal limits that restrict immediate cash-out.
- Published Kalshi orderbook prices show the favorites for the quarterfinals trading at roughly France 77% vs. Morocco 23% and Spain 73% vs. Belgium 27%, illustrating how concentrated bonus-driven volume is changing implied probabilities.
- Polymarket is countering with a larger $50 invite in some states, and whether the inflated liquidity persists will depend on residency and ID checks, state-by-state legal exclusions, and whether bonus-funded accounts become repeat traders.
- The consumer impact includes faster market moves and short-term trading opportunities along with risks from non-withdrawable credits, expiration rules and potential losses for new users who do not complete verification or sustain activity beyond the promotion.