Overview
- Kalshi this week published tradable contracts that let investors and companies take positions on per‑hour prices for specific NVIDIA GPUs and a non‑tradable forward curve that reports expected future rates.
- The exchange settles its tradable contracts using index data from Ornn, which tracks average GPU rental rates across the market, making external indices the official price source for those contracts.
- Listed hardware includes NVIDIA H100, H200, B200 and RTX 5090 with some coverage reported for A100, allowing users to hedge costs tied to distinct chip classes rather than firm or cloud offers.
- Platform data show recent price moves such as a drop in B200 hourly rates from a May peak of $6.11 toward roughly $4.22 in late June, and traders have been placing bets against sustained high B200 pricing.
- Major incumbents including CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are building competing compute futures and indices, so the market now faces questions about liquidity, index robustness and whether compute will become a standardized commodity.