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JWST Data Confirms Asteroid 2024 YR4 Will Miss the Moon in 2032

Precision NIRCam measurements tied to Gaia data removed the remaining lunar‑impact uncertainty.

Overview

  • New observations with JWST’s NIRCam on February 18 and 26, 2026 detected 2024 YR4 and yielded highly precise positions that refined its orbit.
  • Updated calculations show a safe lunar flyby exceeding 20,000 km on December 22, 2032, eliminating any impact scenario for the Moon.
  • The asteroid briefly ranked among the most concerning finds in two decades in early 2025, with an Earth impact soon ruled out but a residual ~4% lunar risk persisting until now.
  • The campaign leveraged ESA’s Gaia star catalog for precise astrometry and was coordinated by ESA’s NEOCC, NASA’s CNEOS, and the Webb mission.
  • Estimated at about 60 meters across, the object could cause regional damage if it struck Earth, underscoring the value of ongoing planetary‑defense tracking.