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June PMIs Show Patchy Global Recovery With US Services Growing and UK Construction Deep in Decline

Cooling oil and shipping costs after a fragile U.S.–Iran truce have eased input-price pressure and could sway central bank decisions if the moderation holds.

Overview

  • U.S. services activity stayed in expansion in June with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 54.0 and the employment subindex rising to 51.2, signaling renewed hiring in the sector.
  • Several surveys reported weaker input-cost pressure in June after oil and freight rates fell following a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which helped bring services inflation down from May peaks.
  • Britain’s construction sector remained in sharp contraction with S&P Global’s UK Construction PMI at 38.4 and employment falling for an 18th straight month, driven by a collapse in housebuilding and weak civil engineering work.
  • Canada’s services sector slipped back into contraction with S&P Global’s Business Activity Index at 47.1 as firms cited geopolitical worries, high prices and falling new business that eroded confidence.
  • Emerging markets showed mixed outcomes: Nigeria’s headline Stanbic IBTC PMI rose to 53.4 even as manufacturing output declined and input-price inflation stayed high, while South Africa’s private sector nudged into expansion at 50.5 with a notable cooling in input-price inflation.