Overview
- The USDA’s July WASDE, released Friday, cut U.S. 2025/26 corn stocks by 125 million bushels and lowered new‑crop corn carryout by 170 million bushels, tightening both U.S. and world corn balances.
- WASDE trimmed old‑crop soybean stocks by 10 million bushels and showed higher soybean exports while private daily flash sales reported large shipments to China including a 264,000‑ton sale.
- Markets rallied on the report with corn, soy and wheat futures turning higher and CFTC/Commitment of Traders data showing speculative funds flipped to a net long in corn and added length in soybeans.
- Weekly export data remain mixed as USDA showed only 565,810 metric tons of old‑crop corn bookings in the week of July 2, while soybean bookings and private sales lifted near‑term demand pacing.
- NOAA’s 7‑day forecast leaves the Plains and much of the upper Midwest relatively dry while a 1–3 inch rain band runs from Missouri into southern IL/IN/OH, and weaker cash and futures cattle trade has put pressure on livestock margins.