Overview
- JPMorgan’s trading desk, led by market intelligence chief Andrew Tyler, shifted to a tactically bearish stance tied to the escalating Middle East conflict.
- Options pricing points to roughly a 2.9% additional near-term decline for the S&P 500, compounding recent weakness.
- A prolonged conflict could push the index toward about 6,720, which would mark a correction of roughly 10% from its recent peak, and the bank says a definitive de‑escalation would be needed to reverse the call.
- JPMorgan’s commodities team says energy infrastructure has been hit on both sides and that the rally in refined products is just beginning, with sustained production declines risking a move toward $120 oil.
- Morgan Stanley offers a contrasting view, arguing the market’s rolling correction since October is nearing completion and maintaining a mostly bullish 6–12 month outlook.