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JPMorgan Reaffirms Tesla Sell, Flags Record Inventory After Q1 Miss

Attention shifts to Tesla’s April 22 earnings for clarity on cash flow, guidance, and its autonomy roadmap.

Overview

  • JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman on Monday kept an Underweight rating with a $145 target that implies about 60% downside and cut EPS estimates to $0.30 for Q1 and $1.80 for 2026.
  • Tesla reported Q1 deliveries of 358,023 versus production of 408,386, creating a gap of 50,363 vehicles and an estimated record 164,000 cars in inventory that could strain free cash flow.
  • Energy storage deployments fell to 8.8 GWh in Q1, well below company-compiled consensus and the first year-over-year decline since Q2 2022, with large grid projects described as lumpy by some analysts.
  • Shares are down roughly 20% to 25% this year and fell below $339 on Tuesday after the delivery shortfall, weak storage figures, and louder bearish calls.
  • Analysts remain split, with Morgan Stanley holding Equalweight at $415 and Baird trimming to $538 Outperform, as investors look to April 22 for updates on cash generation, full‑year guidance, and timelines for robotaxi and Optimus.