Overview
- J.P. Morgan published a note on Friday that upgraded Tesla from Underweight to Neutral and raised its price target to $475 from $145.
- The firm’s new coverage, led by analyst Rajat Gupta, values Tesla less as a carmaker and more as a physical‑AI company that uses vertical integration across chips, batteries, vehicles and software to scale robotics and autonomy.
- J.P. Morgan projects roughly $203 billion in annual revenue and about $7.50 in EPS by 2030, estimating nearly half of that revenue will come from robotaxi services, Optimus humanoid robots and FSD licensing.
- Markets reacted skeptically to the note as shares fell about 6.6% on the day and other houses softened bearish views, with Erste Group moving from Sell to Hold the same day.
- The bank explicitly flagged major risks that could invalidate its forecast, including the need for large‑scale hardware upgrades to millions of cars, rigorous safety validation, regulatory clearance for unsupervised robotaxis and evidence that Optimus can be commercialized at viable cost.