Overview
- J.P. Morgan published a note on June 5 naming Rajat Gupta lead analyst and upgraded Tesla from Underweight to Neutral while lifting its price target from $145 to $475.
- The bank’s report reframes Tesla as a vertically integrated physical‑AI company that could monetize hardware, software and data through robotaxis, humanoid robots and FSD licensing.
- J.P. Morgan laid out a scenario that projects about $203 billion in revenue and roughly $7.50 earnings per share by 2030 with nearly half of that revenue from services, autonomy and robotics while stressing these outcomes depend on successful commercial rollout.
- Markets reacted skeptically with shares falling roughly 6.6% on the day and other analysts staying divided although at least one firm, Erste Group, softened its bearish stance to Hold.
- The change matters because JPMorgan had been a long‑time institutional skeptic of Tesla and its new framework gives investors cover to value optionality while exposing them to material execution, safety and regulatory risks.