Overview
- J.P. Morgan Global Research projects average gold prices of about $6,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026 and roughly $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2027, a forecast that implies roughly 30–40% upside from current quoted levels.
- The bank’s metals strategist cautioned that gold currently faces technical stagnation and muted investor interest, with prices trading between key moving averages and short-term demand subdued.
- International bullion prices recently weakened, a drop that produced a steep single-day fall in Pakistan’s domestic market where 24-karat gold lost about Rs14,900 per tola, and also lowered quoted global spot levels.
- India’s market is being shaped by policy and local factors, including an increase in the basic customs duty on gold and silver from 5% to 10%, which raises import costs and helps explain muted domestic price gains.
- Geopolitical and energy developments remain an important driver because higher oil costs can push inflation expectations and bullion, and the recent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased some of the upward pressure on precious metals.