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Japan’s Three-Party Realignment Stalls as Centrists Launch Hokkaido Forum

Policy rifts, combined with Japan’s open-list rules, now threaten the three-party realignment.

Overview

  • Centrist lawmakers from Hokkaido, who unveiled the Hokkaido Centrist Reform Forum on Thursday in Sapporo, named Kamiya as representative and Sato as secretary-general.
  • The forum is the centrist group’s first prefectural body and it plans to shift into a formal Hokkaido branch once party rules for local units are set.
  • The broader three-party merger effort has stalled as the Constitutional Democratic Party grows wary, with leader Shunichi Shuioka saying on April 17 that not merging is an option and the party dropping a target date for a decision.
  • Substantive gaps block a deal, including split views on security laws, whether to restart nuclear plants, the Henoko base move in Okinawa, and how to secure the imperial line.
  • Election math looms large because Japan’s open-list proportional system rewards candidates who draw organized votes, which could favor Komeito’s Soka Gakkai-backed hopefuls and deter CDP cooperation.