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Japan’s Rengo Sets 2026 Pay Target of 5% or More

Economists warn higher U.S. tariffs could limit exporters’ capacity to meet the push.

Overview

  • The 7 million-member confederation is seeking a fourth consecutive year of hefty raises to counter persistent inflation.
  • The goal emphasizes base-pay increases above 3%, with a separate floor of at least 6% for smaller firms to narrow pay gaps.
  • This year's talks produced an average 5.25% increase, the biggest in 34 years, yet real wages remained mostly negative.
  • Mizuho Research's Saisuke Sakai projects average gains of roughly 4.5%–4.7% at Rengo member firms as exporters cut prices to absorb tariff costs.
  • Severe labor shortages are expected to keep pressure on companies to lift pay, a dynamic seen as important for consumption and the Bank of Japan's policy path.