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Japan’s Long-Bond Selloff Tests Global Debt Nerves as BOJ Decision Nears

Fiscal jitters tied to an early election call with tax-cut pledges fueled the surge in yields.

Overview

  • Yields on Japan’s 40-year and 30-year bonds jumped to multi-decade highs this week, touching about 4.215% and 3.88% respectively before easing.
  • Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama urged calm and a partial rebound followed after officials sought to steady markets.
  • The Bank of Japan’s policy rate stands at 0.75% and investors are focused on the Jan. 22–23 meeting and a crucial 20-year fixed-rate auction for signals on curve stabilization.
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Japanese moves affected Treasuries and disclosed talks with his Japanese counterpart, underscoring global spillover risks and shifting carry trades.
  • Authorities and analysts outlined potential tools that include targeted BOJ bond buying, a slower taper, an Operation Twist-style approach, trimmed long-dated issuance, and possible GPIF allocation shifts.