Overview
- Japan’s 2-, 3-, and 5-year bond yields set new highs and the 10-year reached about 2.393 percent, with markets putting the chance of a 0.25 point BOJ rate increase this month near 55 percent.
- Domestic investors hold roughly ¥390 trillion in Japanese government bonds, so a one point rise in yields could leave tens of trillions of yen in paper losses on bank, insurer, and pension balance sheets.
- To limit those losses, major Japanese institutions have been selling foreign risk assets and repatriating funds, which drains cash from global markets that usually supports stocks and crypto.
- Crypto flow data show about $9.6 billion left Bitcoin in early 2026 while stablecoin supply neared record highs, signaling money moved to the sidelines instead of into higher-risk trades.
- Since 2024, BOJ rate increases have often been followed by 20 to 35 percent Bitcoin declines, a link analysts tie to investors unwinding yen borrowing used to buy higher-yield assets.