Overview
- Average retail prices rose again in the Sept. 8–14 week, reaching ¥4,275 per 5 kg at about 1,000 surveyed supermarkets and ¥4,043 across roughly 6,000 stores in a separate survey.
- In its revised outlook, MAFF estimates domestic main-food rice demand at 6.97–7.11 million tonnes versus 2025 production of 7.28–7.45 million tonnes, implying a potential surplus of up to about 480,000 tonnes.
- The demand methodology now factors in inbound tourism and recent per-capita consumption trends, after previous forecasts undershot actual demand for two consecutive years.
- Cheaper government-reserve supplies have thinned in retail channels as discretionary-contract deliveries lag and high-priced new-crop rice expands, pushing up average prices.
- Distribution remains uneven because stockpile warehouses are concentrated in eastern Japan and sellers bear transport costs; one large buyer, Cosmos Pharmacies, reports receiving only a little over 30% of its 20,000-tonne contract by early September.