Overview
- The central government issued an 11-year update to the首都直下地震緊急対策推進基本計画 on June 12 that shifts the focus to preventing post-quake fires and pushes for near-universal home installation of seismic breakers, devices that automatically cut power when strong shaking is detected.
- The plan uses a December 2025 damage estimate that models a M7.3 Tokyo-source quake causing up to about 18,000 deaths and attributes roughly 70% of those deaths to post-quake fires, which is the main rationale for prioritizing electrical shutoffs.
- Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike warned the national wording on alternative capital hubs and two-region residence could be read as overstating Tokyo’s danger and said the city will carefully analyze the plan before changing public messaging.
- In response, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has started revising its own damage estimates with a target to finish by the end of the fiscal year, will develop an additional disaster-response hub to complement Tachikawa, and has branded seismic breakers as “グラぴたスイッチ” to boost uptake.
- Tokyo aims to raise installation from 13.0% in FY2024 to 25% by FY2030 through subsidies and free distribution, but low public awareness and installation costs remain the main barriers to meeting the government’s much broader near-term targets.