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3d ago

Japan Posts Surprise February Trade Surplus as Exports Beat Forecasts

Rising oil prices paired with a weak yen are intensifying inflation pressures ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting expected to hold rates with a tightening bias.

A Japanese national flag flutters in front of cargo containers at an industrial port in Tokyo, Japan, February 16, 2026. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
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Overview

  • Exports rose 4.2% from a year earlier in February, the sixth straight increase and above the 1.6% market forecast.
  • Imports increased 10.2% year-on-year, short of expectations, producing a 57.3 billion yen surplus versus a projected 483.2 billion yen deficit.
  • Shipments to the United States fell 8% and to China 10.9%, while exports to the European Union jumped 14% and to the rest of Asia grew 2.8%.
  • January’s 16.8% export surge was inflated by front-loaded orders tied to a later Lunar New Year, complicating short-term comparisons.
  • Analysts flag higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict and yen weakness as inflation risks, with markets expecting the BOJ to keep rates steady and maintain a tightening bias.