Overview
- Preliminary 2025 census data released Friday showed the population fell to about 123.05 million, a decline of roughly 3.1 million people since 2020 and the sharpest five-year drop on record.
- Births in 2025 fell to 705,809, the tenth straight annual fall, reinforcing a long-term fertility decline that is driving Japan’s natural population decrease.
- The estimated child population under 15 dropped to a record low of 13.29 million as of April 1, 2026, accounting for just 10.8 percent of the total and marking decades of steady decline.
- Population change was uneven by prefecture, with only Tokyo and Okinawa posting growth while 45 prefectures lost residents, and household size fell as single-person homes rose.
- Government incentives for marriage and childbearing have had limited effect and debate over using immigration to offset losses has intensified as officials warn of looming labour and fiscal strains.