Overview
- Japan has expanded public‑private collection drives such as “Fry to Fly,” retailer drop boxes and corporate programmes to gather household and cafeteria used cooking oil for conversion into sustainable aviation fuel.
- Domestic SAF output remains tiny at about 30,000 kilolitres from the JGC‑Cosmo‑REVO plant, a fraction of the roughly 1.7 million kilolitres Japan says it will need by 2030.
- Industry estimates from UCO Japan put the maximum recoverable used cooking oil at about 550,000 kilolitres, which would meet only roughly 25% of the 2030 SAF target even with perfect collection.
- The government says 2026 is the critical year for final investment decisions, and firms such as Eneos have signalled they will only commit to multi‑billion‑yen projects if feedstock volumes are assured.
- If large refinery projects are not approved, Japan will likely import SAF or feedstock, a move that could raise costs for refiners and airlines and shift the country’s emissions strategy away from domestic supply.