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Japan Finds Higher Crash Rates Among Older Drivers Who Passed On-Road Test

The National Police Agency says the results undermine the test’s screening role, prompting an expert review to propose exam and rule revisions by August 2026.

Overview

  • The NPA published follow-up results showing drivers aged 75 and older who passed the mandatory on-road skills test had about 2.8 times the accident rate and 1.9 times the violation rate of a comparison group.
  • The comparison drew on cohorts from May–August 2023: 5,270 test passers and 8,233 peers who were not required to take the test but received in-car instruction, with outcomes tracked for two years.
  • Risk varied by age group, with 75–79 year olds showing the largest gap at roughly 4.5 times the accident rate, while 80–84 year olds were about 2.3 times higher and those 85+ about 2.6 times higher than the comparison group.
  • The on-road test was introduced in May 2022 for drivers 75+ with certain prior violations, uses five driving tasks scored by deduction, and recorded an overall pass rate near 93% in 2025.
  • Police say the findings, published Thursday, expose limits in the current screening method and could lead to changes in test design and enforcement rules after the expert panel reports in August 2026.