Overview
- Japan Meteorological Agency formally announced El Niño on Wednesday, June 10, marking the first major agency to declare onset as other forecasters complete their spring assessments.
- European model ensembles and Copernicus outlooks have shifted sharply upward and include scenarios where Niño‑region sea surface temperatures reach roughly 3.0–3.5°C above average by November, suggesting a potential very strong or 'super' event.
- The U.S. NOAA has not yet issued a formal El Niño declaration but reports atmospheric signs consistent with onset and expects an updated forecast soon.
- NASA satellite data and field studies show warmer Pacific waters are already reducing upwelling and nutrients for phytoplankton, threatening fisheries and the ocean food web.
- Forecasters warn the event could raise global mean temperatures, weaken India’s southwest monsoon, strain water and power systems, and amplify droughts and floods, so governments and food and fisheries sectors are urged to prepare now.