Overview
- The Japan Meteorological Agency said Wednesday that El Niño likely began this spring and is expected to continue through autumn.
- The agency flagged a high chance that equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures could exceed +2°C by autumn, a threshold often called a 'super El Niño.'
- El Niño typically brings milder winters in Japan, the JMA said, which could influence heating needs and seasonal planning.
- Despite El Niño’s usual tendency to favor cooler summers in Japan, the JMA forecasts this summer will probably be warmer than average because a northward-extended Pacific high will bring warm air over the country.
- El Niño is defined as a sustained rise in sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific and is a major driver of global weather swings; this event is the first since the 2023–24 episode and follows a May 12 forecast that the chance of formation had risen to about 90 percent.