Overview
- Dimon spoke in an hourlong interview released Monday in which he said he would not buy broad equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at current prices.
- He put a 'fair-value' range for the 10-year Treasury yield at about 4.0% to 4.5%, saying that leaves little upside for bond prices even if inflation returns to 2%.
- Dimon said growing budget deficits and soaring government borrowing risk a bond-market repricing, meaning investors could demand higher yields to hold Treasurys and push interest rates up.
- He cited specific geopolitical flashpoints — the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, rising U.S.-China tensions, and higher military spending — and said a tougher policy stance on Iran could mean a year of higher gas prices without U.S. military losses.
- Dimon compared the AI investment boom to the early internet by saying the technology will likely pay off overall but with uncertain timing and many failed bets, and he noted JPMorgan posted record Q2 profits even as he issued his warning.