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ITC Reports Resilient Q3 as Excise Hike Puts New Pressure on Cigarette Outlook

Broker targets fall after a steep Feb. 1 tax change clouds prospects for legal volumes.

Overview

  • Consolidated net profit was marginally higher at about ₹5,018 crore, with profit before exceptional items up 8.7% and consolidated gross revenue at ₹21,706.64 crore.
  • A one-time ₹354.58 crore provision tied to India’s new labour codes kept reported profit broadly flat versus last year.
  • Cigarette volumes grew roughly 7% year on year with segment pre-tax profit up 5.7%, while FMCG-Others delivered strong gains and group Ebitda rose 7.6%.
  • ITC warned that the GST rejig and a sharp excise-duty rise effective February 1 will sharply lift tax incidence on cigarettes and could spur illicit trade, pressuring legal sales.
  • Brokerages cut valuations and highlighted the likelihood of two to three price hikes and near-term margin uncertainty even as easing leaf tobacco costs are expected to aid Q4; the board recommended a ₹6.5 per-share interim dividend.