Overview
- Istat’s provisional 2025 data show real GDP growth of 0.5%, a deficit equal to 3.1% of GDP, and public debt near 137.1% of GDP.
- Staying above the 3% threshold means Italy remains in the EU’s excessive deficit procedure, delaying access to ReArm Europe’s Safe loan and the defence safeguard.
- The government had aimed for a 3.0% deficit in October’s fiscal program; Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti called the figures provisional and pointed to lingering Superbonus effects, which opposition parties contest.
- Istat will notify Eurostat by March 31, potential revisions could come by April 21, and the European Commission plans to assess the final 2025 outturns in its Spring package in early June.
- The primary balance improved to +0.7% of GDP as tax pressure rose to 43.1%, with domestic demand and investment strengthening and net trade weighing on growth.