Overview
- Israel’s IDF and Shin Bet are assessing claims that a person with access to classified planning used non‑public information to wager on June 2025 operations against Iran on Polymarket.
- Accounts diverge on the scope of action, with one report detailing an active Shin Bet probe that includes forensics and screenings while another says no formal criminal investigation has been opened.
- Platform activity described in the reports shows a dormant account reactivated about 48 hours before the strike and placing large, precise bets that matched a Friday operation and an end‑of‑June timeline.
- Estimated profits range from tens of thousands of dollars to more than $150,000, and no suspect has been publicly identified.
- Investigators are pursuing blockchain tracing, exchange KYC records, transaction clustering, and access‑log comparisons, with any attempt to cash out through regulated channels viewed as the likely chokepoint.