Overview
- U.S. and Iranian mediators announced an initial interim memorandum on June 14 to halt military operations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz with a formal signing planned in Geneva on June 19.
- On Monday Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the IDF will remain indefinitely in zones it controls in southern Lebanon, Syria and Gaza and warned Israel would strike Iran with full force if Tehran retaliates.
- Senior Israeli ministers, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in talks with President Trump, have said Israel will not consider itself bound by any Lebanon-related clause in the emerging agreement.
- Israel’s continued strikes in southern Lebanon and public rejection of withdrawal create a concrete risk that Israeli actions will undermine or delay the deal because Iran has tied its implementation to a halt in Israeli attacks on Hezbollah.
- The standoff reflects domestic political pressure and security concerns in Israel after gains of about 1,000 square kilometers in recent campaigns and leaves open economic and security fallout for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if the memorandum stalls.