Isolated Severe Storms in Central High Plains as SPC Says Watch Unlikely

Overview

• SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2149 reports isolated wind and hail this evening from extreme northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska with no severe thunderstorm watch anticipated.
• A notable supercell is tracking from Kit Carson County, Colorado, toward Cheyenne County, Kansas, and has likely produced severe hail and gusty winds at times.
• Convection along the frontal zone is trending more linear and may be undercut by the front, leaving any prefrontal supercells as the main source of the strongest hail and wind.
• Wind profiles remain favorable for supercell structures, with most probable peak hazards near 55–70 mph gusts and 1.00–1.75 inch hail cited in SPC guidance.
• Earlier SPC and WPC analyses highlighted a conditional supercell risk from northeast Colorado into southeastern Wyoming and a brief, localized flash‑flood threat overnight in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.