Overview
- The Spring Economic Forecast, which the Cabinet discussed Tuesday, outlines baseline, adverse and severe paths and says the economy still grows even if the conflict drags on.
- Officials frame a jump in global energy prices as the main risk, with knock‑on strain on supply chains that would raise inflation and slow output.
- Finance Minister Simon Harris calls for budget surpluses to build buffers and keeps the option of fresh energy credits on the table for a tough winter.
- Public Expenditure Minister Jack Chambers warns of stagflation risk and seeks tighter departmental cost controls with a shift toward capital projects in housing, transport, energy and water.
- Leaders point to falling debt, rising real incomes and record employment as a cushion for households, though costlier energy could still squeeze bills until more renewables come online.