Overview
- On June 25, a senior Iraqi oil official told Reuters Baghdad would consider all options if its OPEC quota is not substantially raised, and hours later the Oil Ministry issued a formal denial that withdrawal was the government's current position.
- Iraq says a collapse in exports through the Strait of Hormuz after the Iran war has slashed oil revenue and left the country facing a severe fiscal shortfall that it expects new quotas to address.
- OPEC+ approved a modest 26,000 barrels-per-day increase for Iraq from July, a move Baghdad described as insufficient and which has sharpened its public push for a much larger allocation.
- Baghdad is pursuing alternative export routes, including plans to expand shipments through the Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey, to restore flows while it seeks quota relief within OPEC’s framework.
- OPEC+ has launched an independent technical review of members’ sustainable production capacities to set 2027 baselines, a process that will shape negotiations and leave the dispute unresolved in the near term.