Overview
- Iran has widened the fight to Gulf industries, with drones damaging big aluminum smelters, port cranes and other non‑oil assets in the UAE, Bahrain and Oman.
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, trapping energy cargoes and blocking alumina deliveries that smelters need to keep running.
- Aluminum output losses now reach an estimated 3 million tons a year, according to ING cited by Bloomberg, pushing London prices near four‑year highs around $3,500 a ton.
- Auto makers are already cutting output, with Toyota trimming about 40,000 vehicles and warning that roughly 70% of its processed aluminum comes from the Middle East as Nissan adjusts schedules.
- The disruption is broadening, with the IEA calling the oil stoppage the largest on record and analysts flagging knock‑ons from fertilizer to copper as sulfur flows that feed African mines tighten.