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Iran War Recasts GOP 2028 Race, Elevating Rubio as Vance’s Plans Waver

The conflict has shifted momentum toward Marco Rubio, introducing new uncertainty around J.D. Vance.

Overview

  • Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio is portrayed as a chief architect and public face of Operation Epic Fury, with reports noting louder applause for him than for Vice President J.D. Vance at a recent Mar-a-Lago donor event.
  • Trump administration insiders say Vance is skeptical of further escalation, and separate reporting says he is weighing a 2028 bid as he and his wife prepare for a fourth child.
  • Prediction markets show Rubio rapidly gaining and narrowing the gap with Vance, though a new McLaughlin & Associates poll still places Vance in the lead.
  • The war’s toll includes reports of at least 13 U.S. service members killed and more than 200 wounded, rising gasoline prices near $3.90 per gallon, and continued disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Pressure on Vance has intensified following the high-profile resignation of counterterrorism official Joe Kent, who publicly criticized the administration’s approach.