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Iran War Pressures Trump’s Market Narrative as Stocks Slip, Yields and Dollar Rise

Higher energy costs are complicating the administration’s push for lower rates.

Overview

  • The Dow is more than 5% below its February 10 record and the S&P 500 is down 1.5% this month, reversing gains the president has highlighted.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to about 4.22% after its biggest weekly jump since April, lifting borrowing costs across the economy.
  • The US dollar index has rebounded 1.7% this month and is now up nearly 1% for the year, clashing with the White House’s preference for a weaker currency even as Treasury backs a strong-dollar stance.
  • Oil supply risks tied to fighting near the Strait of Hormuz have roiled energy markets and shipping, prompting US political-risk insurance to support Gulf maritime trade.
  • Strategists say the conflict’s duration will determine whether inflation pressures persist and whether the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts, keeping market volatility elevated.