Overview
- Oil price spikes tied to fighting and shipping disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz have pushed some models’ recession odds close to 50%, including Moody’s Analytics.
- Six economists told Business Insider the U.S. is not in a recession, though they warn the conflict has increased the chance of one.
- The outlook hinges on how long oil stays high, since pricier gas can cut household spending and prompt firms to slow hiring.
- Consumer sentiment fell about 6% from February to March, the University of Michigan reported, as drivers faced higher fuel costs.
- The NBER, which makes the official call, waits for broad drops in income, jobs, spending, and output before declaring a recession.