Overview
- The Iran war has choked fertilizer and fuel moving through the Strait of Hormuz, raising costs for rice growers in Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia.
- FAO’s chief economist, Maximo Torero, says farmers have already reduced inputs and warns supplies will tighten in the second half of 2026 and early next year.
- Thai farmers describe steep cost spikes and say they are using far less fertilizer, a change that lifts expenses now and risks lower yields at harvest.
- The Philippines could lose as much as 6 million tons of output compared with its usual 19–20 million, which would leave it vulnerable if exporters keep limits in place.
- An El Niño pattern is expected to bring hotter, drier weather later this year, compounding risks to yields, while India’s record 42 million tons of rice stocks offers a partial buffer.