Overview
- The effective shutdown began after late-February strikes on Iran, and Iran has since set up checkpoints, ship vetting and a Persian Gulf Strait Authority that controls who may pass through the waterway.
- Independent trackers report daily transits have plunged from more than 100 ships to single- or low-double-digit movements, producing large shortfalls in oil, LNG and raw materials for fertiliser production.
- The Food and Agriculture Organization and other U.N. bodies say the disruption risks a systemic agrifood shock that could push global food prices higher and add tens of millions to acute food insecurity within six to 12 months.
- Gulf states are racing to reroute exports overland and by new pipelines, with ADNOC reporting the Fujairah bypass pipeline is nearly 50% complete and expected to raise export capacity by 2027.
- Higher freight and war-risk insurance costs, contested Iranian transit claims versus independent data, and U.S. and European talks on defensive missions mean maritime normalisation will take months and will reshape regional trade routes.