Overview
- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted a satirical “Straits Taylor Rule” on X that added SOH (Strait of Hormuz) and BEM (Bab el‑Mandeb) to a central‑bank formula and declared “You can’t 25bp a chokepoint.”
- Hours after the post, the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4% target range in its first hike since 2023.
- Preliminary ship‑tracking cited by Reuters showed commercial crossings through Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb fell sharply and Brent and WTI oil benchmarks remained above $100 a barrel.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said renewed fighting and higher petrol prices helped persuade officials to back the hike, while market analysts stressed that energy shocks are one of several factors influencing Fed policy.
- Ghalibaf’s message builds on months of Iranian messaging about maritime leverage and highlights a practical limit of monetary policy: higher interest rates can curb demand but cannot reopen blocked shipping routes, so watch for persistent energy price volatility and its knock‑on effects for consumers.