Overview
- Iran, which authorities said Saturday had returned the Strait of Hormuz to a closed or restricted status, broadcast radio orders to halt transits and a supertanker reported gunfire and aborted its passage.
- U.S. naval forces continue enforcing a blockade that has reduced commercial traffic, and Washington has given no sign it will ease operations near the waterway.
- Tehran’s leadership signaled a hard line in Islamabad talks as Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it would not compromise, and state-linked reports said Iran declined new rounds of negotiations.
- President Trump said Iran agreed to pause its nuclear program, but Iranian officials did not confirm that claim, and public statements from Tehran instead rejected concessions.
- Prediction markets now price very low chances of a ceasefire or blockade lift in the next few days and a higher probability by late May, reflecting a fragile negotiating track and the risk that repeated closures of a strait carrying about one-fifth of seaborne oil will keep pressuring energy, shipping and even bitcoin prices.