Overview
- U.S. consumer prices rose 2.4% year over year in the latest data, but higher energy costs threaten to stall disinflation.
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates at 3.5–3.75% at next week’s meeting after pausing cuts late last year.
- Investor pricing shifted expected Fed easing from July to September as Brent crude hovers near $100 a barrel.
- RSM projects headline inflation near 3% in March and about 3.5% or higher in April, while another analyst says oil around $100 could push U.S. inflation toward 4% if sustained.
- Germany’s RWI warns a conflict lasting over four weeks could lift inflation temporarily to 6% and drive oil toward $150, with gas storage around 20% heightening supply risks.