Overview
- Iran’s foreign minister conveyed through mediators a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for delaying nuclear talks, with reports surfacing Monday as traders saw little chance of a fast breakthrough.
- President Trump canceled a planned envoy trip to Pakistan and said he will not renew the ceasefire without Iranian concessions, while CENTCOM reported the U.S. blockade continues and has turned multiple ships back.
- Brent crude climbed to about $108 as stalled diplomacy and shipping curbs kept supply risks elevated in a strait that carries roughly one‑fifth of global seaborne oil.
- Iranian leaders rejected new nuclear limits and said the waterway will not return to pre‑war rules, and Iranian forces seized two commercial ships near the chokepoint.
- Prediction markets now put April 30 peace or nuclear deals in the low single digits, with odds shifting into May and June as talks stall and both sides harden their demands.